Tidings of Comfort and Joy, With a Side of Stats

It's Christmas and it's hockey season. I'm pretty sure that's why they call it the most wonderful time of the year. And despite all the worry and despair over the recent struggles of the team, it's actually a wonderful time to be a Blue Jackets fan. In fact, there's never been a better time to be a Blue Jackets fan at this point in the season.

Need proof? First, take a look at this chart that comes compliments of michaelwass.com. Sometimes, a picture says it all.

Some will look at the graph and say we're right where we were three years ago. And two years ago. And last year as well. Which is to say, nothing has changed. However, I m unabashedly a glass-half-full guy and I see much to be happy about. The team changed it's coach. It's trying to change it's culture. Both of these things can gut a team. Sometimes these types of major changes require a few steps backwards before being able to move forward. And yet here we are no worse than before. In fact, things are better than ever.

Still not rejoicing? Then it's time to take a deeper dive.

The folks at a website called PowerScout Hockey have developed three new statistics to measure both individual player and team performance. The three new stats are:

New Player Stats

PS:    PS stands for Point Shares, which tracks how many points in the standings a player contributed to his team through his own performance and ice time. Click here to learn more.
MAX:    MAX stands for Maximum Point Shares, which measures a player's current performance level, and provides a common base by which to compare players regardless of position, role, or era. Click here to learn more.

New Team Stat

INT:    INT stands for team Intensity which tracks how hard each team is working and the resulting momentum changes in real-time during games. Click here to learn more.

Here's the lowdown. Some people that are a lot smarter than you and me, and who have a lot more time to concern themselves with these things than we do, have been tracking traditional stats like blocked shots, giveaways, takeaways, hits "and, most importantly, ice time." Using a "complex linear multiple regression model," the brainiacs at PowerScout did extensive analysis on all aspects of hockey. From that, they determined the most important player and team statistics that contribute to the most important metric of them all: team wins. Every day they punch all the data into a computer bigger than the State of Vermont, go out for coffee and when they come back they've got lists of the top players and teams in the NHL all organized on a slick-looking web site. If I get a ballot in the mail I will nominate them for the Nobel Peace Prize.

So how is all this supposed to have you feeling merry and singing, "Ding, dong, ding?" According to PowerScouts current numbers: 1) the Blue Jackets are the 14th Hardest Working Team in the NHL (and trending up), and 2) Matthieu Garon is presently the 10th best player in the NHL. There. If that doesn't fill you with yuletide cheer then your last name must be Grinch or you're on the wagon.

If you are a stat geek like me, you will find plenty to chew on at PowerScout Hockey, including the ability to track a team's INT level during a game in real time. In the video clip below, PowerScout's Marc Appleby shows how the two fights that occurred in the first period of the Blue Jackets game against the Flames last night impacted each team:

 

Fascinating, isn't it? And perhaps even a little overdue. Sabremetrics, defined as the analysis of baseball through objective evidence, has been around for decades. But the same type of geek-like approach has yet to really grab hold of the hockey world. That's beginning to change. If you are more of a traditionalist and find this stuff akin to an assault on all that is sacred about hockey, blame it on the multitudes of fantasy sports geeks that are the reason that IT is the only department that is hiring at the company where you work.

Bill James, a pioneer and long-time advocate of sabremetrics, said that the concept behind it was attempt to answer objective questions about baseball, such as which player on a given team contributed the most to the team's offense? Or how many home runs will Player X hit next year? Finding the answers to such questions is like mining for gold to the average fantasy sports nerd and general manager alike.

PowerScout is an attempt to bring this same highly analytical approach to hockey. According to the web site, it is the most comprehensive and definitive player evaluation system created to date. One might discount such talk as proprietary exuberance, but apparently TSN's Bob McKenzie is a fan. That's saying something.

So, the next time somebody asks you who was the greatest hockey player of all time, look them in the eye with confidence and say, "Mario Lemiuex. And Gretzky isn't even second."